2019 Emmy Award Predictions from Experts & Users

  • Publish Date: September 19, 2019
  • Comments: ↓ 1 user comment

Updated Sunday, September 22. All predicted winners remain the same except for supporting actress in a comedy, where Olivia Colman is now favored, and writing for a drama series, where Succession and Game of Thrones are now tied. Additionally, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is now just one percentage point behind Veep in the best comedy race.

Picks for the 71st Primetime Emmy Awards

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Will HBO's departing series Game of Thrones and Veep dominate the drama and comedy categories, respectively, in their final seasons, much as they did in their previous years on the air? And will they be joined by their network's newer shows like Barry and Succession and the HBO limited series Chernobyl and Sharp Objects? Or will potential upstarts like Amazon's Fleabag, BBC America's Killing Eve, and Netflix's When They See Us prevent HBO domination? We'll know the answers to these and many more questions when absolutely no one hosts the 71st Primetime Emmy Awards on Sunday night, which will be broadcast live coast-to-coast on Fox beginning at 8pm ET (5pm PT).

To help you make an informed decision when filling out your office Emmy pool, we have collected predictions from over 60 professional entertainment and TV writers and critics. (Expert predictions will be updated daily through Sunday.) However, this "expert" consensus typically gets anywhere from a quarter to a half of its picks incorrect—last year, for example, they managed a meagre 54% accuracy rate. For the tenth straight year we also invited Metacritic users to submit their own picks, and the results of nearly 1,800 submissions are also displayed below.

Comedy nominees

Outstanding comedy series

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Veep (HBO) 40% Barry (HBO) 26%
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video) 39% Veep (HBO) 23%
Fleabag (Prime Video) 15% Fleabag (Prime Video) 22%

Comedy lead actress

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Veep (HBO)
87% Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Veep (HBO)
42%
Phoebe Waller-Bridge
Fleabag (Prime Video)
6% Phoebe Waller-Bridge
Fleabag (Prime Video)
22%
Rachel Brosnahan
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
5% Natasha Lyonne
Russian Doll (Netflix)
14%

Comedy lead actor

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Bill Hader
Barry (HBO)
82% Bill Hader
Barry (HBO)
67%
Michael Douglas
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
8% Ted Danson
The Good Place (NBC)
13%
Ted Danson
The Good Place (NBC)
6% Michael Douglas
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
9%

Comedy supporting actress

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Olivia Colman
Fleabag (Prime Video)
43% Olivia Colman
Fleabag (Prime Video)
25%
Alex Borstein
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
42% Alex Borstein
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
18%
2 tied with ... 5% Kate McKinnon
Saturday Night Live (NBC)
13%

Comedy supporting actor

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Tony Shalhoub
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
64% Henry Winkler
Barry (HBO)
24%
Alan Arkin
The Kominsky Method (Netflix)
13% Tony Hale
Veep (HBO)
22%
Henry Winkler
Barry (HBO)
11% Tony Shalhoub
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video)
20%

Comedy directing

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Barry, "ronny/lily"
by Bill Hader
52% Barry, "ronny/lily"
by Bill Hader
35%
The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,
"We're Going to the Catskills!"
by Daniel Palladino
36% Fleabag, "Episode 1"
by Harry Bradbeer
20%
2 tied with ... 5% Barry, "The Audition"
by Alec Berg
14%

Comedy writing

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Fleabag, "Episode 1"
by Phoebe Waller-Bridge
76% Fleabag, "Episode 1"
by Phoebe Waller-Bridge
30%
Veep, "Veep"
by David Mandel
19% Barry, "ronny/lily"
by Alec Berg & Bill Hader
29%
Barry, "ronny/lily"
by Alec Berg & Bill Hader
5% Russian Doll, "Nothing in This World Is Easy"
by Leslye Headland, Natasha Lyonne, and Amy Poehler
14%

Drama nominees

Outstanding drama series

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Game of Thrones (HBO) 97% Game of Thrones (HBO) 43%
Ozark (Netflix) 2% Better Call Saul (AMC) 20%
Succession (HBO) 2% Killing Eve (BBC America) 16%

Drama lead actress

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Sandra Oh
Killing Eve (BBC America)
66% Emilia Clarke
Game of Thrones (HBO)
34%
Jodie Comer
Killing Eve (BBC America)
19% Sandra Oh
Killing Eve (BBC America)
27%
Emilia Clarke
Game of Thrones (HBO)
8% Jodie Comer
Killing Eve (BBC America)
22%

Drama lead actor

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Billy Porter
Pose (FX)
66% Bob Odenkirk
Better Call Saul (AMC)
38%
Bob Odenkirk
Better Call Saul (AMC)
11% Kit Harington
Game of Thrones (HBO)
20%
Jason Bateman
Ozark (Netflix)
10% Billy Porter
Pose (FX)
19%

Drama supporting actress

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Julia Garner
Ozark (Netflix)
42% Lena Headey
Game of Thrones (HBO)
26%
Maisie Williams
Game of Thrones (HBO)
25% Maisie Williams
Game of Thrones (HBO)
19%
2 tied with ... 13% Fiona Shaw
Killing Eve (BBC America)
18%

Drama supporting actor

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Peter Dinklage
Game of Thrones (HBO)
93% Peter Dinklage
Game of Thrones (HBO)
50%
Jonathan Banks
Better Call Saul (AMC)
4% Jonathan Banks
Better Call Saul (AMC)
14%
2 tied with ... 2% Alfie Allen
Game of Thrones (HBO)
12%

Drama directing

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Game of Thrones, "The Long Night"
by Miguel Sapochnik
62% Game of Thrones, "The Long Night"
by Miguel Sapochnik
45%
Succession, "Celebration"
by Adam McKay
17% Killing Eve, "Desperate Times"
by Lisa Brühlmann
19%
Game of Thrones, "The Iron Throne"
by David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
17% Game of Thrones, "The Iron Throne"
by David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
13%

Drama writing

Experts   Users
Image   Image
(tie) Succession, "Nobody Is Ever Missing" by Jesse Armstrong
-AND- Game of Thrones, "The Iron Throne" by David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
33% Better Call Saul, "Winner"
by Peter Gould & Thomas Schnauz
28%
Killing Eve, "Nice and Neat"
by Emerald Fennell
19% Killing Eve, "Nice and Neat"
by Emerald Fennell
22%
2 tied with ... 7% Game of Thrones, "The Iron Throne"
by David Benioff & D.B. Weiss
19%

Movie and miniseries nominees

Note that the Academy has once again increased the number of awards handed out during the live broadcast—this time, to a total of 27 categories. We did not ask our users to guess the winner of the made-for-television movie category, which in recent years was included in the earlier Creative Arts ceremony. But if you need a selection to complete your office pool, the consensus pick among experts is that HBO's Deadwood movie will pick up the trophy, though Bandersnatch, the interactive Black Mirror movie, is a potential spoiler.

Outstanding limited series (miniseries)

Experts   Users
Image   Image
When They See Us (Netflix) 67% Chernobyl (HBO) 74%
Chernobyl (HBO) 30% When They See Us (Netflix) 16%
Fosse/Verdon (FX) 3% Sharp Objects (HBO) 6%

Movie/miniseries lead actress

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Michelle Williams
Fosse/Verdon (FX)
66% Amy Adams
Sharp Objects (HBO)
47%
Patrica Arquette
Escape at Dannemora (Showtime)
32% Patrica Arquette
Escape at Dannemora (Showtime)
20%
Amy Adams
Sharp Objects (HBO)
2% Michelle Williams
Fosse/Verdon (FX)
13%

Movie/miniseries lead actor

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Jharrel Jerome
When They See Us (Netflix)
71% Jared Harris
Chernobyl (HBO)
49%
Jared Harris
Chernobyl (HBO)
17% Mahershala Ali
True Detective (HBO)
23%
Mahershala Ali
True Detective (HBO)
12% Jharrel Jerome
When They See Us (Netflix)
15%

Movie/miniseries supporting actress

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Patricia Clarkson
Sharp Objects (HBO)
88% Emily Watson
Chernobyl (HBO)
40%
Patricia Arquette
The Act (Hulu)
8% Patricia Clarkson
Sharp Objects (HBO)
30%
Emily Watson
Chernobyl (HBO)
4% Patricia Arquette
The Act (Hulu)
15%

Movie/miniseries supporting actor

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Ben Whishaw
A Very English Scandal (Prime Video)
57% Stellan Skarsgård
Chernobyl (HBO)
55%
Michael K. Williams
When They See Us (Netflix)
31% Ben Whishaw
A Very English Scandal (Prime Video)
16%
Stellan Skarsgård
Chernobyl (HBO)
10% Michael K. Williams
When They See Us (Netflix)
10%

Movie/miniseries directing

Experts   Users
Image   Image
When They See Us (full series)
by Ava DuVernay
81% Chernobyl (full series)
by Johan Renck
66%
Chernobyl (full series)
by Johan Renck
17% When They See Us (full series)
by Ava DuVernay
23%
Escape at Dannemora (full series)
by Ben Stiller
2% Escape at Dannemora (full series)
by Ben Stiller
5%

Movie/miniseries writing

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Chernobyl (full series)
by Craig Mazin
67% Chernobyl (full series)
by Craig Mazin
73%
When They See Us, "Part Four"
by Ava DuVernay and Michael Starrbury
21% When They See Us, "Part Four"
by Ava DuVernay and Michael Starrbury
16%
2 tied with ... 5% A Very English Scandal (full series)
by Russelll T. Davies
4%

Other shows

Outstanding competition program

Experts   Users
Image   Image
RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1) 88% RuPaul's Drag Race (VH1) 48%
The Voice (NBC) 7% The Voice (NBC) 13%
2 tied with ... 2% American Ninja Warrior (NBC) 11%

Outstanding variety talk series

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Last Week Tonight (HBO) 89% Last Week Tonight (HBO) 45%
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert (CBS) 9% Jimmy Kimmel Live! (ABC) 17%
Full Frontal With Samantha Bee (TBS) 2% The Late Show (CBS) 16%

Outstanding variety sketch series

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Saturday Night Live (NBC) 91% Saturday Night Live (NBC) 52%
Documentary Now! (IFC) 7% Documentary Now! (IFC) 15%
Who Is America? (Showtime) 2% Who Is America? (Showtime) 15%

Variety series directing

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Saturday Night Live, "Host: Adam Sandler"
by Don Roy King
64% Saturday Night Live, "Host: Adam Sandler"
by Don Roy King
24%
Documentary Now!, "Waiting for the Artist"
by Alex Buono & Rhys Thomas
28% Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, "Psychics"
by Paul Pennolino
23%
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, "Psychics"
by Paul Pennolino
6% Documentary Now!, "Waiting for the Artist"
by Alex Buono & Rhys Thomas
18%

Variety series writing

Experts   Users
Image   Image
Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
(full writing staff)
86% Last Week Tonight With John Oliver
(full writing staff)
41%
The Late Show With Stephen Colbert
(full writing staff)
8% Saturday Night Live
(full writing staff)
22%
2 tied with ... 3% Documentary Now!
by John Mulaney and Seth Meyers
15%

Who are the experts?

Experts included in our survey this year are: Thelma Adams (Gold Derby), Erik Anderson (Awards Watch), Michael Ausiello (TVLine*), Kristen Baldwin (Entertainment Weekly), Judy Berman (Time), Jen Chaney (Vulture*), Danette Chavez (A.V. Club), Clayton Davis (Awards Circuit), Eric Deggans (NPR*), Lynn Elber (AP*), Gregory Ellwood (The Playlist/Awards Campaign), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Bonnie Fuller (Hollywood Life*), Caitlin Gallagher (Bustle), Verne Gay (Newsday), Matthew Gilbert (Boston Globe), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood*), Jalal Haddad (Awards Daily), Chris Harnick (E!*), Adrian Horton (The Guardian), Matthew Jacobs (HuffPo*), Allison Keene (Paste), Mark Kennedy (AP), Justin Kirkland (Esquire), Kelly Lawler (USA Today*), Brian Lowry (CNN), Vinnie Mancuso (Collider), Ed Martin (MediaVillage*), Megan McLachlan (Awards Daily), Matt Webb Mitovich (TVLine*), Wilson Morales (BlackFilm*), Joey Moser (Awards Daily), Clarence Moye (Awards Daily), Mary Murphy (Gold Derby), Philiana Ng (Entertainment Tonight), Nikki Novak (Fandango*), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), David Phillips (Awards Daily), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Lynette Rice (Entertainment Weekly*), Damon Rivera (FanSided), Ariana Romero (Refinery29), Robert Rorke (New York Post*), Christopher Rosen (TVGuide.com*), Matt Roush (TV Insider), Michael Schneider (Variety*), Alan Sepinwall (Rolling Stone), Amanda Spears (Awards Watch), Michael Starr (New York Post), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily*), Jazz Tangcay (Awards Daily), Kaitlin Thomas (TVGuide.com*), Anne Thompson (IndieWire*), Ben Travers (IndieWire*), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone*), Ken Tucker (Yahoo*), Kristi Turnquist (The Oregonian), Vanity Fair staff (Vanity Fair), Malcolm Venable (TVGuide.com), Vulture staff (Vulture), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times), Susan Wloszczyna (Gold Derby)

* Predictions made all or in part at goldderby.com (updated as of September 20, 2019).
Note that most experts did not make predictions in every category. Click on any link above to view individual predictions.

After the ceremony

Check our site again late Sunday night after the Emmy ceremony for reviews of the telecast from a selection of professional TV critics. We'll also reveal which experts and users had the most accurate predictions this year.

Comments (1)

  • Cassio13  

    Chernobyl not winning with the experts in every category is outlandish, its a bloody masterpiece.

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